I just finished watching Quali and checking the F1 news.
Alonso and Hamilton are on different fuel strategies (as confirmed by Ron Dennis), so presumably Hamilton will go longer than Alonso. With any luck he'll lead after Alonso's first stop, or better still, beat Alonso into the first corner.
Coulthard starts 13th, not 16th. Two other F1 websites say that basically he was classified 11th then penalised two places. This doesn't make sense to me, as he would have been 10th or better if he had been allowed to take part in Q3, then the two place penalty would put him 12th at worst. Therefore the two-place penalty is actually three (or more) places.
The fact that the stewards prevented him for starting Q3 also prevented any opportunity of effective appeal, as Coulthard's penalty was immediate and irreversible, unlike an infringement during Q3 where the stewards would have longer to decide on an appropriate penalty.
I'm not saying Coulthard shouldn't have been penalised. By his own admission, there was a communication problem and he thought that Kovalainen wasn't on a hot lap. What I'm saying is, I think the steward's decision to put Button into Q3 instead of Coulthard was wrong.
The silver lining is that Button starts 10th, and the Hondas seem well set up for a change.
Getting back to Hamilton, I think he will win if it's dry. He's quick, and so is the car. I just hope he doesn't get overconfident.
Hamilton's leading the Championship, he has a 100% win record at Monaco, he's starting on the front row of the grid, and arguably he's the quickest in final quali when you take into account fuel load. He's on a roll.
His sideways final lap showed good car control, but there's no room for error when driving like that (and it doesn't do the tyres any good). I'm worried that he might make a mistake and at Monaco that will be costly.
If it rains, Hamilton should be more cautious and go for steady points, even if that means an Alonso Win. Either way, it will be a good race.